AI shift could leave white-collar workers jobless in next downturn

“A much larger unemployment risk and anemic recovery prospects for these workers might cause the next labor market downturn to look pretty dismal.” [1]

White-collar knowledge workers could bear the brunt of the next labor-market downturn as generative AI reshapes office jobs, raising the risk of a jobless recovery even if headline unemployment improves, according to a new analysis from Fortune [1].

The International Monetary Fund estimates that nearly 40% of jobs worldwide are exposed to AI, with exposure in advanced economies around 60%, concentrated in higher-skill, cognitive and office-based roles [2]. How firms deploy AI matters: it can complement workers and lift productivity, or substitute for specific tasks and slow rehiring in affected occupations after a recession [2].

Research from the OECD finds AI is changing task composition within jobs, with substantial automatable components in professional and administrative occupations. These shifts can polarize labor markets and make transitions uneven, especially if reskilling lags and adoption advances faster in certain firms or sectors [3].

Taken together, the evidence helps explain Fortune’s warning: if a recession hits while AI adoption accelerates, layoffs in some knowledge roles may not quickly reverse, producing a jobless recovery dynamic for affected professionals even as broader demand returns [1][2][3].

Policy options flagged by researchers include targeted reskilling and upskilling for displaced professionals, better labor-market matching, and support for complementary technologies that raise the productivity of human work rather than replace it outright [2][3]. For employers, the near-term watch items are the mix of AI-augmented hiring, internal redeployment rates, and the pace of training that helps existing staff work effectively with AI tools [2][3].